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科学美国人60秒: 气候赌博

所属教程:科学美国人60秒科学系列 更新:12-30
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Isolated Low Temps May Reassure Climate Skeptics

气候赌博

Global warming deniers love to point to cold or snow as evidence against climate change. Like Oklahoma Senator James Inhofe. Remember last year, when he tossed a snowball in Congress? "You know what this is? It's a snowball. It's very, very cold out." With that, he offhandedly disproved decades of climate science. To some people.

全球变暖否认者喜欢用寒冷和降雪来证明气候没有变化。比如,俄克拉何马州参议员詹姆斯·英霍夫。还记得去年,他在国会扔雪球吗?“你知道这是什么吗?这是一个雪球,外面非常冷。”他用此毫不客气地反驳了几十年的气候科学。反驳了一些气候学家。

But such cold-influenced-denial may be playing out across the U.S., in particular in Appalachia and the South. Because it turns out those areas have had lots of record low temperatures in the last 12 years. And they're also by and large the same parts of the country that have high numbers of global warming skeptics. So researchers have a theory that personal experience with cold snaps could be trumping scientific facts.

但是,这种否认寒冷的局面正在美国上演,尤其是在阿巴拉契亚和南方。因为在过去12年,这些地区有大量的低温记录。大体都是这些地区,同时这些地区有大量的全球变暖怀疑论者。所以,研究人员有这样的理论,体验过寒流的个人经验可能会超过科学事实。

The analysis is in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

该研究结果发表在《美国国家科学院院刊》.

Study author Robert Kaufmann, an environmental scientist at Boston University, says the way around this might be to put climate data in terms people understand: money. "We should propose a simple bet to climate skeptics. And that is: For every new record high temperature at a weather station, you pay us a dollar. And for every new record low temperature, we'll pay you a dollar."

研究报告的作者罗伯特·考夫曼是波士顿大学的环境科学家。考夫曼表示,针对这样问题的处理方式把数据与人们的理解相结合:钱。我们和这些怀疑论者打个赌。方法就是:气象站每有一个新的高温,这些怀疑论者付给我们一美元钱。而对于每一个新的低温,我们付给他们一美元。

Or, he says, think of climate change as a slot machine, especially with the president-elect. “He's run casinos. So you can kind of think of climate like a climate casino. If you were a casino owner and you had a machine that was constantly paying out more record high temperatures than more record low temperatures, you would look into that machine. Something's wrong with the machine. And that's what the climate machine has been doing."

他还说,把气候变化当成一个自动售货机,特别随着新当选的美国总统。“特朗普经营赌场。所以你可以把气候变化想象成为气候赌场。如果你是一个赌场老板,同时拥有一台这样的机器,与创新低的温度相比,这台机器一直在支付刷新高的温度,你就会检查一番这台机器。这台机器是不是哪出错了。这就是气候这台机器所做的事情。”

However you think about it, Kaufmann won't be betting. "I got no dough, man, I'm an academic."

但是你仔细想一想,考曼夫不会赌博。“我没有赌注,因为我仅仅是一个学者”。

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