This is the VOA SpecialEnglish DEVELOPMENT REPORT.
A new American report warns that rates of infection from the AIDSvirus will rise sharply by the year two-thousand-ten. The NationalIntelligence Council prepared the report for the United StatesCentral Intelligence Agency. It says the increase will result mainlyfrom the spread of AIDS in five countries. They are China, India,Ethiopia, Nigeria and Russia.
The report estimates that the number of people infected in thosecountries could increase to between fifty-million andseventy-five-million. That is three times the number currentlyestimated. It also is far more than the number of AIDS casesexpected in central and southern Africa. That number is expected toincrease to as many as thirty-five-million people.
China, India, Ethiopia, Nigeria and Russia have more than fortypercent of the world's population. Officials warn that the increaseof AIDS could harm the economic, social, political and militarysystems in these countries.
The report estimates that India might have as many astwenty-five-million AIDS victims by two-thousand-ten. That is thehighest estimate of any country.
The report says the AIDS virus is spreading at different rates inthe five countries. It says that risky sexual activity is increasinginfection rates in all five. The problem is reported to be mostsevere in Nigeria and Ethiopia.
For example, the report notes that in Nigeria the virus hasspread from high-risk groups to the general population. Nigeria'sgovernment has attempted to increase public understanding of thevirus that causes AIDS. The report warns that the disease couldaffect one-fourth of all adults in the country within eight years.
In Ethiopia, the release of soldiers from the armed forces hasgreatly influenced the spread of the disease. The report says manyEthiopian soldiers and sex workers became infected during the civilwar in the nineteen-eighties. It says Ethiopia and Nigeria have fewpublic health services to fight the disease.
The report says that the main cause of rising AIDS infections inRussia is illegal drug use. It says the release of large numbers ofinfected prisoners and rising numbers of sex workers are helping thedisease to spread. In China, one reason the disease is increasing isbecause of unsafe methods in the collection and sale of blood.
This VOA Special English DEVELOPMENT REPORT was written by GeorgeGrow.